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  • All things property and finance – 2301 Jan 2023 issue
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Hi,

I hope you and your family had a great Christmas break. Even though it’s early in the year, there’s already some big news around:

– Refinancing hits new record

– Property listings rise 4.6%

– 3 key fixed-rate loan tips

Read more below.

But first….. 3 things!

#1 Our survey results are in!

Conveyancer Vs Property Lawyer?

Our question was: As a property purchaser, would you use:

– A conveyancer

– A property lawyer

– Someone who does both

Some observations:

Personally, I like to use a conveyancer who works closely with a property lawyer or alternatively, a property lawyer. The reason being that if something goes awry, I want my conveyancer to be onto it like a dog with a bone. I don’t want to have to suggest and then engage a property lawyer at the last minute (I had a client who was once in that position and it was painful for all concerned 😥)

Property lawyers can cost a little bit more than a conveyancer (but not always a lot more) and for run-of-the-mill property transactions, you might think “Is this overkill?‘ But for me, I come from the perspective ‘I am not the expert and I don’t know what I don’t know‘ so I rely on the legal and property experts to assist me. I would call those extra few hundred dollars I might need to spend as my insurance policy!

And if there is complexity but I don’t understand the complexity, I don’t want my conveyancer to assume I have already obtained appropriate legal advice (noting that conveyancers cannot give legal advice).

#2  Updates to our Property Market Reports.

These Reports are a great resource for those looking to buy in a new region or just to get a feel for what is happening in that region. Each Report also includes a suggested recommendation to Buy / Hold / Sell.

Updated Regional Property Reports

Here are the last 3 months’ updates of these detailed regional reports (including the property clock: Buy / Hold / Sell).

There are 30+ regions analysed and they are updated regularly.

Get your Free Property & Regional Reports

#3  Phil Anderson – Guru or ….?

If you don’t know or have not heard of Phil Anderson, you are not alone. He runs a business called Property Share Market Economics and pre-COVID, he presented at a CBRE property seminar.

Phil has a contrary view on all things economic to what you might read in the media. As he says, the economy runs off the back of the price of land and the economic rent of land. And most economists don’t factor this relationship (and the cyclical nature of this relationship) into their economic forecasts.

Phil’s food for thought: Phil believes the property market runs in a predictable cycle (18.6 years is pretty precise!) and that the next peak is in 2026/27.

Further, he is predicting banks, with their higher margins from the interest rate increases will be increasing access to credit which will fuel the next series of price rises. On this I am in agreement – and, watch out for bank profits to go up even higher as a result.

Now, whether you think Phil is blowing steam from you know where or whether you agree with him, the interesting thing is that he is bullish on the property market for the next few years. And, he says he has data on his side. Of the last 10 cycles of interest rate increases, the price of property has increased 9 times (and in the 10th it went sideways).

So there you have it!

 

Mortgagees refinanced a record $19.5 billion of home loans in November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has reported.

That included $13.4 billion of owner-occupied loans (also a record) and $6.1 billion of investment loans (the second-highest on record).

The ABS had a simple explanation for the astonishing amount of refinancing that occurred in November: “More borrowers switched lenders for lower interest rates as the RBA’s cash rate target continued to rise.”

There are two reasons why so many people are able to find lower-rate home loans at other lenders.

First, rising interest rates are causing people to shop around, because not all lenders are increasing rates at the same pace.

Second, with so many lenders in the market, competition for business is fierce, so institutions often charge new customers lower rates than their existing customers.

If you like the sound of switching to a home loan with a lower interest rate, get in touch. I’ll compare the market on your behalf and give you multiple options to choose from.

Want to compare interest rates? Let’s talk!

 

In a strange twist, the number of properties listed for sale has increased, even as the number of homes coming onto the market has decreased, according to SQM Research.

At first glance, it appears as though there must be fewer for-sale properties. That’s because, across Australia, the number of new listings (those that had been on the market for less than 30 days) in December was 22.4% less than the year before.

However, while fewer new homes are being listed for sale, those already on the market are taking longer to sell. In December, the number of listings that had been on the market for more than 180 days was 14.3% higher than the year before.

However, while fewer new homes are being listed for sale, those already on the market are taking longer to sell. In December, the number of listings that had been on the market for more than 180 days was 14.3% higher than the year before.

As a result, the total number of homes listed for sale in December was 4.6% higher than the year before.

SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said the rise in older listings appears to be uniform across cities and towns, and is typical of what happens in a housing downturn.

“As there remains more sellers than buyers, dwellings on the market that are not priced to market, don’t sell,” he said.

Get in touch if you need a home loan!

 

If you fixed your home loan in early 2022 or before, and your fixed period is going to expire this year, it’s important to prepare yourself for higher interest rates.

That’s because, once your fixed period ends, you’ll revert to a variable loan, whose interest rate will almost certainly be higher.

Since May 2022, the Reserve Bank has raised the cash rate by 3 percentage points, and most banks have increased their variable rates by a similar amount.

Here are three tips to prepare yourself for a rate rise:

– Pretend your interest rate has already increased by 3 percentage points and pay the extra amount into a special savings account each month

– Look for ways to reduce your discretionary costs, such as by holidaying domestically rather than internationally or buying a used car rather than a new vehicle

– Speak to a broker ahead of time about refinancing to a lower-rate home loan once your fixed period ends

Many lenders offer special inducements to refinancers, including lower interest rates and cashback deals, which is why refinancing can be such an effective tactic.

Get in touch if you want to refinance!

 

The Australian Banking Association, which represents the country’s biggest banks, will make changes to the Banking Code of Practice to better protect customers.

In response to the 2021 Independent Banking Code of Practice Review, the ABA has said it would:

– Accept clear statements about customers’ rights and how to enforce them.

– Ensure banking services are inclusive of people of diverse sexual orientations and gender identities.

– Update the definition of a ‘small business’, to protect an additional 10,000 small business customers.

– Update the definition of a ‘vulnerable customer’, to better recognise that anyone can be vulnerable at any time.

The changes around vulnerable customers will also clarify the type of support available to all customers, including financial difficulty options for small businesses or those needing access to external support services such as interpreters and financial counseling.

The ABA has started work on drafting its amendments.

The ABA’s membership includes 20 of Australia’s largest banks, including the big four banks, Macquarie Bank, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, Bank of Queensland and ING.

Below are some observations as reflected from the data obtained from the RBA for the 12-month period ending 31 August 2020.  Whilst both the absolute numbers and the relationship between rates will change, these observations provide you with useful information when you are shopping for a home loan by explaining some of the macro risk profiles considered by lenders.

1. Principal and Interest (P&I) interest rates are generally lower than Interest Only (IO) interest rates. Based upon a quick look at two major lenders (Macquarie and Westpac), P&I rates are lower than  IO rates by 0.7% pa and a whopping 2.25% pa respectively!!!

This spread in rates can change if lenders form a different view of future economic conditions including inflation. Right now, lenders are rewarding borrowers who can demonstrate a capacity to gradually repay their loan. (PS the sting in the tail for IO loans is that whilst the repayments might be lower (in dollar terms) than a P&I loan, the debt servicing rate for IO loans is higher than for P&I loans; the logic being that after the IO period ends, the loan principal needs to be repaid over a shorter period of time so the monthly repayments of the principal are higher).

2. Rates for Owner Occupiers (OO) are sometimes lower than the rates for Investors (IN).  Currently, the Variable Rates for an Owner Occupier are about 0.3% pa lower than for a similar Variable Rate product for an Investor.

3. The relationship between variable rates and fixed rates is more complex. Depending upon lenders’ views of future interest rates (and a whole bunch of other economic factors), the Variable Rates can be higher or lower than the Fixed Rates. Currently, Variable Rates are lower than most similar Fixed Rate products. And, the difference in interest rates between the two increases as the Fixed Rate term increases (the lowest Fixed Rate term is 1 year and the highest Fixed Rate term is 5 years).

4. The Loan to Value Ratio (LVR) also impacts the interest rate you will pay. If you have an LVR of over 80%, you can expect to pay a premium of anywhere up to 0.5% pa (and perhaps higher). It is also worth noting that loans with a high LVR (mostly over 80% but sometimes a bit higher if, for example, you are an eligible borrower (e.g. medical practitioner)), also require borrowers to pay Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). LMI is an insurance policy the borrower pays to protect the lender in the event of a default and is often capitalised on top of the loan amount. (Note: LMI also has some hidden costs to the borrower in the event of default but more on that elsewhere).

5. The size of the commitment suggests that lenders slightly favour loans under $1.0M over loans. However, the differential is not significant. – between nil and 0.1% pa.

[1] RBA Data: https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/#interest-rates

 

The marketplace for home loans

– The lending marketplace for consumers is large and confusing – particularly in the home loan and more broadly, the residential lending space (home loans and investment property loans).

– Apart from the big 4 retail banks (CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ), there are regional banks which operate in each State, credit unions and mutual lenders (which are ‘owned’ by consumers) plus the growing range of online ‘fintech’ lenders who only offer consumers loans via their website.

Brokers have access to many of these lenders plus even more as they can obtain loans from lenders who only lend money to consumers via a broker distribution channel.

– Research by KPMG[1] in 2019 indicates that the big 4 banks have a share of over 81% of the residential property mortgage market. And, as over 55% of borrowers use a broker[2], brokers also place a lot of their clients’ loans with the major lenders.

So, whether you use a broker or whether you walk down to your local high street bank, the big 4 dominate the lending landscape.  Most borrowers probably feel that if they have a choice of 4 (or 5 or 6 if you include regional banks which are available in most States) of largest lenders, they would be getting an ‘ok’ deal – and that the options they are being offered by the big 4 represent what is available across the lending industry.

And for many borrowers, this might well be true – but it is not necessarily true.

The reason this approach of walking down your local high street is appealing to many borrowers who have not used a broker is because research has shown we don’t like too much choice.  We do like choice, but not too much.  And more than 4 or 5 to choose from quickly becomes ‘too much choice’.

So, with over 40 lenders which most brokers deal with, the choice is far too large to consider for most borrowers.

That is one of the main reasons why borrowers use a broker – to sort through the ‘too much choice’ factor quickly and efficiently so the borrower can approach a lender whose product is suitable for the borrower.

 

How do we shop for home loans?

The KPMG research shows a number of interesting facets in obtaining a loan:

– We prefer to research online (87% use and prefer the internet) but when it comes to the application, we are more likely to opt for face to face (56%) – but then, we prefer to revert to online service (80%). And, we really don’t like call centres and we try to avoid them whenever possible!!!

– 44% of those who have previously taken out a loan preferred to apply via a broker Vs 41% using their existing financier and 15% preferring to use a new financial institution.

– And of those who use a broker, 67% renegotiate their interest rates at least once every 5 years compared to 53% for those who applied directly to a lender. At BIR Solutions we do this every year with your existing lender and every 2 years with other lenders.

– The older we are, the more likely we are to use our existing lender.

– Roughly two thirds of respondents have 2 or more financiers. 

– Reasons we choose brokers or new financial institutions – or decide to stay with our existing financier:

> Interest rate or price related data: 51% of those borrowers who used a broker channel and 59% of those who went to a new financial institution, did so for interest rate related reasons.

– and this was regarded as a significantly important reason.  Only 19% of those who used their existing financier prioritized interest rate related reasons and they did not rank this reason as being an important reason for choosing their existing financier.

> Convenience: 35% of those borrowers who used a broker related channel and 65% of those who used their existing financier did so for convenience related reasons.

> Trust: was the third main area identified as reasons borrowers chose brokers (14%) or new financial institutions (27%) or they decided to stay with their existing financier (16%).

 

Based upon my exposure to borrowers, lenders and the broker channel, this research makes intuitive sense.

[1] Savings.com.au: Big banks lose market share in tough home loan environment by William Jolly

[2] The Adviser: Broker market share bounces back by Charbel Kadib

[3]  Ibid To Sell is Human, Dan Pink p. 234

[4] Ibid, KPMG

[5] Subject to your consent – of course!

Hi,

Christmas is just around the corner, so if you haven’t done your shopping it might be wise to start now. In the meantime, here are four stories I think you’ll like:

– Borrowers pass their ‘rate buffer’

– Govt tackles housing affordability

– Australian property earns praise

– ABS releases good economic news

Read more below.

 

And for the business owners amongst you,

we have snuck in the results of our most recent survey (towards the end 😉)

This month’s survey question: 

If you were borrowing money for your business, would you…..

  • use your transaction bank
  • a specialist lender
  • a broker

(Scroll to the end to see the results – and our commentary!)

Plus…..

Updated Regional Property Reports

Here are the last 3 months’ updates of these detailed regional reports (including the property clock: Buy / Hold / Sell). 

There are 30+ regions analysed and they are updated regularly.

Request FREE Report

 

 

The mortgage market has entered interesting territory, thanks to the Reserve Bank’s decision to hike the cash rate by another 0.25 percentage points in November.

That increased the rate rises that have occurred since May from a cumulative 2.50 percentage points to 2.75 percentage points.

The reason that’s significant is because when lenders assess home loan applications, they have to make sure the borrower could repay the loan if interest rates were to rise.

Until October 2021, lenders had to add a buffer of at least 2.50 percentage points – so the November rate rise pushed many borrowers beyond their buffer.

Since October 2021, that buffer has increased to at least 3.00 percentage points

But despite the series of rate rises, CoreLogic isn’t seeing any signs of panicked selling or forced sales in its listings data.

“In fact, the flow of new listings remains substantially below what they would usually be for this time of the year,” executive research director Tim Lawless said.

Reach out if you’d like to discuss refinancing. I can explain the pros and cons, and potentially help you refinance to a comparable loan with a lower interest rate.

 

One of the highest-profile elements of the Albanese government’s first budget was a target to “build one million new well-located homes over five years from 2024”.

Only 2% of these one million new builds will be funded by the federal, state and territory governments; the other 98% will come from the market, with governments “playing a key role in enabling and kick-starting investment”.

CoreLogic’s head of residential research, Eliza Owen, noted that some have said the target lacks ambition, given that 974,732 homes were constructed in the five years to June 2022, and an average of 1,010,723 have been completed on a five-year basis since 2017.

One of the highest-profile elements of the Albanese government’s first budget was a target to “build one million new well-located homes over five years from 2024”.

Only 2% of these one million new builds will be funded by the federal, state and territory governments; the other 98% will come from the market, with governments “playing a key role in enabling and kick-starting investment”.

CoreLogic’s head of residential research, Eliza Owen, noted that some have said the target lacks ambition, given that 974,732 homes were constructed in the five years to June 2022, and an average of 1,010,723 have been completed on a five-year basis since 2017.

“However, the past five years have been conducive to high levels of construction (notwithstanding immense bottlenecks for the construction industry in the past two years) and there’s no guarantee activity levels will remain at the same level for the next five years,” she said.

“As interest rates rise, home prices fall and supply-side constraints persist, the delivery of a million homes is not guaranteed and may be more ambitious than what was achieved in the past five years.”

 

Australia’s population is set to grow strongly over the next decade, which is likely to lead to higher demand for rental accommodation.

Global real estate giant CBRE said population growth is one of the main reasons why “Australian real estate represents a compelling investment”.

CBRE said Australia’s population was expected to grow by 14% between 2021-2030, which would be the highest rate among developed economies.

That strong population growth is partly due to migration, with the federal government recently increasing its annual permanent migration intake from 160,000 people to a record 195,000.

More competition for rental accommodation would put upward pressure on rents, in an environment that’s already strongly favouring landlords. As CBRE noted, there is “less than 1% vacancy in select markets”, which is leading to “robust rent growth”.

CBRE forecasts that from 2022-26, rents will increase by an average of at least 5% per annum in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.

 

Australia’s economy has posted its best growth numbers in a decade, according to the most recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The economy grew 3.6% in the 2021-22 financial year – the best result since it grew 3.9% in 2011-12.

That strong economic growth has helped drive down the unemployment rate to below 4%, which is very low. As a result, the vast majority of workers have jobs, which is the key to being financially secure.

The ABS also reported that households saved 13% of their income in the 2021-22 financial year, which is high by historical standards.

That means many people put money aside for a rainy day – a smart move given the subsequent increase in prices and interest rates.

The Reserve Bank said earlier this month that it “expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead”, so if you have a home loan, it would be wise to budget accordingly.

Two possible ways to save money are to ask your bank for a rate cut (you’d be surprised how often they agree to this) or to refinance to a comparable loan with a lower interest rate.

 

This month’s survey results are in!

If you were borrowing money for your business, would you…..

The interesting thing here is that whilst 70% of borrowers consider using a broker for their residential property loan, business owners still prefer to use their bank.

 

This is interesting for a few reasons:

– Transaction banks are not always the best solution for business finance.  That is why there has been a proliferation in the growth of non-bank lender finance for businesses.

– Using property security for business purposes may work when there is an asset being acquired and the asset is the property which is being used as security.

– However, for other business purposes e.g. working capital finance, cashflow finance, ‘urgent cash’ finance and debt consolidation finance, other types of security might work better – particularly in terms of turnaround time and flexibility of the amount able to be borrowed.

– There are now non-bank lenders offering not just invoice finance (commonly referred to as debtor finance or factoring) but also trade finance where the supplier’s invoices are financed so the supplier remains happy as they are being paid on time. This can be particularly relevant for purchases from overseas suppliers who don’t like to ship their stock if they haven’t guaranteed payment is going to be received.

– Sometimes (e.g. for a property acquisition), the business owner is using the business entity to hold the asset.  However, the assets can be held in other entities which might be more appropriate eg a super fund, or a trust. Typically, we see good tax accountants assist business owners make this assessment.

We can help you work out the best way to fund the cash your business needs in order to grow.  And, as a broker, we can introduce you to the lender which will best suit the needs of your business.

Before we start….

For further content, please visit https://www.bir.net.au/blog/

And, if you would like a Free Property Report, you can order yours here: https://www.bir.net.au/report-request. You can obtain a report for a particular property, suburb or region in Australia, so you can make informed property decisions. Plus, our suburb reports now provide a comparison report of up to 5 suburbs you want to research.

Any questions, please ring me, Michael Royal 0411 190 474 or email me: michael.royal@bir.net.au. And you can also book a meeting with me: https://calendly.com/michael-royal/chat-re-finance

Now, back to the Article! 😉

 

At its simplest level, there are 2 types of interest rate products available for the housing loan market in Australia – Variable Interest Rate products Vs Fixed Interest Rate products.

But this is just the start!  Many lenders, for example, offer Fixed Rate products with different terms ranging from 1 year all the way through to 5 years.

And, there are 2 ways you can pay back the amount you borrow – gradually over time (referred to as Principal and Interest repayments) or in a lump sum (referred to as Interest Only repayments).  Within the home loan lending environment, Interest Only products don’t tend to get repaid but rather, they revert to a Principal & Interest product after the Interest Only term expires.  Interest Only terms are typically somewhere between 1 to 5 years while the remaining Principal & Interest term might be a further 25+ years on a 30-year term loan.

And if you take out a 30 year loan with a 5 year Interest Only option, your Principal repayments for the remaining 25 years and which kick in after the expiry of your 5 year interest only period will be proportionately higher than if you started off repaying your Principal at the commencement of your 30 year loan.

Plus, there are some lenders who offer a Variable Rate Line of Credit and there are some who allow you to prepay your interest a year in advance (which can be handy when you have a higher taxable income in a year which you can offset with the prepayment of interest when the interest is tax deductible).

All home loan products essentially take into account a mix of these 4 options.  Each option combination has a different risk profile for the lender and is likely to have a different interest rate (or price) being charged to the borrower.  There are no ‘set rules’ or even ‘rule of thumbs’ you can use to assess the perceived risk as risk profiles can change over time and lenders are continually updating their risk profiles.  Below are some current risk profiles as identified in recent RBA data (as at October 2020).

There are a number of additional reasons the interest rate charged by a lender might vary in addition to the mix of products selected by the borrower – plus some of these factors might even result in particular lenders saying ‘no’ to providing finance:

– The borrower’s profile (including income, expenses, assets, liabilities, credit history, profession).

– The purpose for borrowing (typically either home (owner occupier (OO) Vs investment (IN); or established Vs off the plan Vs land & construction).

– The borrower’s identity (a natural person (like you and me!), company, trust, partnership or super fund).

– The amount being required to be borrowed (the total amount as well as the amount compared to the borrower’s income).

– The loan to value ratio (LVR) and whether the LVR is above the lender’s LVR limit resulting in the lender requiring the borrower to pay lenders mortgage insurance (LMI).

 

And finally, here are some other things to be aware of:

– Additional features provided by a lender may result in a higher interest rate as compensation for the lender for providing these features.  For example, a loan without an interest offset account and redraw facility may have a cheaper interest rate.  Additional features like an offset account can be very useful as they can reduce your total interest cost – and they may even be useful to have ‘in reserve’ in case you do need them – but as with all things, make sure you have thought this through otherwise you might be paying for something you never were likely to use.

– Interest rates vary between lenders as well as between a lender’s products.  So, it is wise to do your homework and review the market.  Nevertheless, not all lenders are going to be on ‘Page 1 of Google’.  That is why it is prudent to consider using a great broker.  Great brokers know far more lenders and lending options than could ever fit on Google’s page 1.

– No matter how attractive a lender’s interest rates appear in the marketing and advertising blurb, not all lenders’ products are available for all borrowers.  As noted above, some lenders have quite tight restrictions on the criteria they use when considering whether to offer an applicant funding – and so you might not qualify for their ‘low rate’ product.  Unwary borrowers can waste a lot of time preparing loan applications for loans they were never going to get or at a rate they were not going to be offered because they were not made aware of all the lender’s restrictions.  Again, this is why applicants should consider using a great broker – because great brokers know more about each lender’s products than consumers and they know who and what to ask if there is a potential issue with a particular assessment criteria used by a particular lender.

– Beware ‘limited time’ offers with low interest rates – or honeymoon rates as they are often called.  These rates expire and at the end of that time, your loan will revert to the lender’s then current interest rate.

– Fees and charges can vary for each loan.  When considering fees and charges, Choice 1 suggests you need to take these into account under the heading ‘Watch the fees.’  Choice lists the following fees for consideration (I have regrouped them so it is easier to read:

– Upfront charges: LMI

– Ongoing fees: monthly or annual fees.

– Discharge fees & Break costs

 

I agree. However, be careful of not over-estimating the impact of fees and charges.  For example, on a $500K loan, an interest rate differential of 0.1% pa equates to $500 pa. At present, most annual fees charged by lenders are less than $500 pa – so an interest differential saving of 0.1% pa when paying an annual fee of (say), $400 pa would mean you are ‘ahead’ by $100 pa.  And even then, when we are looking at the overall cost of interest, this is not a great deal and in many cases, would not be considered material to your decision.

[1] Choice:  https://www.choice.com.au/money/credit-cards-and-loans/home-loans/buying-guides/how-to-choose-the-right-home-loan

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